A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
