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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

But the current race is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and recent strugglers rising together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still