A mere 60 days in the past that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach berated him over not reading a pass in behind. Back then, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained whether his displays were a symptom or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. After the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and roared. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six games, are somehow just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, while the victories have stacked up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team who have just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – but right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more versus United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, bent just inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the performer he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
