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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd